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The seemingly endless string of parliamentary votes, accompanied with rounds of back and forwards shots fired between Theresa May and the House of Commons, at last, seems to be close to coming to fruition, considering this week’s program of events.
Scheduled for this Tuesday, the British lawmakers are expected to vote on the possibility of extending the Brexit deadline, which is forecasted to have a mixed impact on the pound. The first vote on the trade deal proposal, in mid-January of this year, yielded a crushing defeat for Theresa May with a 432 to 202 vote against her proposition.
The second vote was carried on Tuesday last week, when the PM suffered another, albeit less clear-cut, defeat by a margin of 391 to 242. Now, with less than 2 weeks remaining before the initial deadline for delivering Brexit – the 29th of March – the passage of time seems to oddly work in favour of the PM, as the threat of a no-deal Brexit finally appears to be alarming the leavers campaign at a rate, that might actually incline them to rethink their negotiation priorities.
Furthermore, in an article for the Sunday Telegraph Mrs May used this pressure in her favour to leverage the stress from a no-deal Brexit and to push her political opponents into submission. The PM remarked in her Telegraph statement that:
"If Parliament can find a way to back the Brexit deal before the European Council, the UK will leave the EU this spring, without having to take part in the European elections, and we can get on with building our future relationship […] If it cannot, we will not leave the EU for many months, if ever".
Based on the previous parliamentary numbers, Theresa May's defeats in Parliament are now getting less conclusive, which could be an indication of the changing tide of Brexit negotiations. So if this might be any precursor for the future, we can only expect that with the time running out and the pressure mounting up, the volatility on the Sterling is only likelier to increase this week.
Image source: Trendsharks ©, created with TradingView.com
Furthermore, Theresa May is expected to attend the European Economic Summit on Thursday that could possibly have consequences for the future of Brexit, since the purpose of the vote in the European Parliament is to decide on whether to grant the UK an extension of the deadline for the finalization of Brexit from the aforementioned the 29th of March to June of this year.
The PM is expected to plead before the European Commission for the abovementioned extension and also to pressure the Eurosceptic 'MP's in her own conservative party to accept her trade proposal, so that the UK can speed up the divorce process and thereby avoid the possibility of having to participate in the future elections for European Parliament.
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