Image source: lightfieldstudios © 123RF.com
The US non-farm payroll employment rose with 224 000 newly added jobs in June, which surpassed the initial forecasts for 162 000 new jobs, but the underlying unemployment rate rose to 3.7 per cent.
The most significant job gains were registered in the professional and business services industry, as well as the health care industry. However, the overall unemployment rate, as perceived by demographics characteristics, demonstrates different conclusions about the state of the US labour market. According to household survey data:
“Both the unemployment rate, at 3.7 per cent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 6.0 million, changed little in June.” [source]
According to the establishment survey data:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 224 000 in June. Employment growth has averaged 172 000 per month thus far this year, compared with an average monthly gain of 223 000 in 2018.”
The apparent success of the American industry-performance across multiple sectors is what keeps investors upbeat, and also caused the initial market reaction to the release of the report, which measured a sizable increase of the value of the USD, as the US dollar currency index spiked with 0.60 per cent immediately after the release of the report.
The performance of the various American industries in June managed to surpass both the average employment growth throughout 2019, as well as the employment growth that had been registered throughout the previous year. Following these results, the initial market reaction was to perceive the June NFP as being overall positive.
However, it should also be noted that with the added revisions of the final results observed during April and May, the general perspective of the labour market is also marginally shifted.
“The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised down from +224 000 to + 216 000, and the change for May was revised down from + 75 000 to +72 000. With these revisions, employment gains in April and May combined were 11 000 less than previously reported.”
Despite the 0.1 per cent increase in the total unemployment rate, the US labour market remains resilient, and the aggregate employment remains close to full employment and within the target range of the FED. However, the risk is not entirely removed, and Jerome Powell and the FOMC would still have to consider how to sustain the current state of affairs, even at the cost of possible interest rate cuts if needed.
Image source: TradingEconomics.com
The monetary policy committee would most likely remain vigilant and observe the future developments in the US labour market, in addition to the underlying changes in the inflation rate.
Meanwhile, the US dollar currency index has gained momentum following the release of the NFP report and is on track to continue compensating for most of the losses that were registered in June.
Image source: Trendsharks ©, created with TradingView.com
Over the past few weeks, the USD has lost nearly 800 pips against the JPY, driven by Japan's shift away from decades of negative interest rates. With the Bank of Japan raising rates for the second time in a row, investors are adjusting their positions to [...]
Despite its volatility, Silver remains in an uptrend. While not as dynamic as Gold, XAG often mirrors XAU’s movements. A Multiple Top has formed around $32.50, and history shows that the more a level is tested, the weaker it becomes, increasing the likelihood of a [...]
A combination of factors, including Trump-era tariffs, the emergence of DeepSeek, and a slowdown in GDP growth, has contributed to the recent pullback in the US30 from its record highs. From a technical standpoint, a Double Top pattern has formed around the [...]
Over the past month, Silver has experienced an impressive 13% surge, marking a strong bullish trend. Despite notable volatility and multiple pullbacks, the overall momentum remains firmly to the upside. This strength is further validated by the Golden Cross, a historically reliable [...]
The Swiss Stock Market has been on a remarkable rally, surging over 15% between December and January. At times, the price action resembled a near-vertical ascent. However, following the announcement of Trump’s tariffs over the weekend, Monday’s trading session opened with a [...]
Between October and January, GBPUSD experienced a significant decline, dropping by approximately 1300 pips. However, we now observe signs of a potential trend reversal. Over the past few weeks, the pair has rebounded by more than 400 pips, shifting momentum toward a [...]
For the past 1 month, the UK100 saw a fantastic 600 point rally! The occasional corrections only attracted more buyers, which is healthy for the current up trend and the RSI currently exhibits elevated demand. A 130 point correction started last week on Friday, dipped below the [...]
Over the past two weeks, Japan’s leading stock index surged 2,000 points, reflecting strong bullish momentum. However, this week saw a sharp sell-off, erasing nearly all gains since mid-January. Despite this drop, the decline stalled at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, a key [...]
There is a clear shift in the momentum in the Oil market, with the commodity dropping with nearly 10% for the past 2 weeks. The Death Cross, a classic sell signal, is indicating that sellers are indeed in control and we are lookin now at a strong [...]
The 350 pip rally for the past 2 weeks seems like a trend reversal for EURUSD, with buyers back in control. The strong bullish momentum is also confirmed by the Golden Cross, a historic buy signal. Corrections are healthy for the trend and we currently looking at [...]
For the past 2 weeks GBPUSD went up with 400 pips and this is why we believe we might be looking at a trend reversal. The strong bullish momentum is confirmed by the Golden Cross, a classic buy signal, which supports the hypothesis that [...]
The Death Cross formation in USDJPY signals a robust downward momentum, with the USD depreciating by 300 pips over recent weeks. Further declines exceeding 300 pips are anticipated, potentially reaching the 152.00 level. Despite several corrective pullbacks, the price has been unable to surpass the [...]
Following the formation of a Double Top pattern at the 21,930 level last Friday, the NASDAQ has experienced a significant decline, plummeting by nearly 800 points. This downturn has been primarily driven by unfavorable manufacturing data emerging from China, alongside the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike on Friday. The market reaction closely resembles the [...]
GOLD's uptrend has regained strength, with several factors supporting further gains. The RSI bounced from oversold levels and now stands at 65, signaling growing demand and increasing buying volume. Additionally, the appearance of a [...]
For the past few months, USDJPY gained 2100 pips! Then, about 10 days ago the USD started dropping and so far corrected with 300 pips, dropping down to 155.00. A local Double Bottom got formed and this level also aligns with the important [...]
For the past week, the US100 has surged by over 1,000 points, signaling strong bullish momentum. The RSI stands at 69, indicating high demand and buyer dominance. A bullish Golden Cross pattern has emerged, confirming the upward trend. Despite a brief correction yesterday, with the index dipping to [...]
The Descending Triangle on the 4-hour chart, typically a bearish signal, failed to materialize this time. Instead, the Triple Bottom support at 92,000 held strong, driving significant buying volume. A Golden Cross—a classic bullish indicator—confirms strong [...]
After a 300-point correction from its December highs, the SP500 appears to be rebounding as bulls regain control. This recovery is supported by positive economic data, including strong NFP numbers, low unemployment, and CPI readings meeting expectations—all favorable for stocks. Additionally, the earnings season began yesterday with [...]
For several months, the EUR has been trending downward, losing hundreds of pips. While occasional corrections to the upside occur, bears remain in control. The strong downward momentum is highlighted by the Death Cross pattern, a classic sell signal. Yesterday, we observed another [...]
The Dollar remains strong, with buyers firmly in control since the Fed's December comments hinting at fewer 2025 rate cuts. This drove a 400-pip rally in USDCAD, now facing resistance near 1.4450 as early buyers take profit. Corrections are part of healthy trends, and the pair is testing support at [...]
