Image source: zimmytws © 123RF.com
The two most significant economic events for the week ahead will be the Non-Farm Payrolls in the United States and the Unemployment Report in Canada, both scheduled for Friday. The two countries will release their respective economic findings simultaneously at 12.30pm CET, which means that heightened volatility can be expected for the USDCAD pair around noon on Friday.
In Canada, the unemployment rate has risen with 0.1 per cent in June from the recorded 5.4 per cent rate in the previous month, and the overall unemployment has appreciated with an additional 0.2 per cent in July. Thus, the Canadian economy has experienced two consecutive months of gradually increasing unemployment, which could become potentially start worrying local investors if Friday’s report demonstrates that the trend has been maintained throughout August as well.
Image source: TradingEconomics.com
Should the unemployment rate rise to 5.8 per cent or above, the Bank of Canada would have to reconsider its monetary policy and perhaps even weigh in on a potential rate cut, as the economy would be transitioning away from a status of full employment.
As regards the United States, the unemployment remained unchanged last month at 3.7 per cent, and the labour market is still exhibiting resilience currently operating at close to full employment. However, revisions of past Non-Farm Payrolls reports demonstrate that ‘employment gains in May and June combined were 41 000 less than previously reported’ [source] . Thus, the average monthly job gains for the past three months have been estimated to be at 140 000, and if Friday's NFP reports fewer new jobs to have been created in August, the US dollar could be weakened as a result of the report's sluggish outlook.
Image source: TradingEconomics.com
As per usual the NFP data will be closely scrutinized by the FED as it is an essential measurement of the underlying monetary policy's effectiveness, and should the labour market exhibit early signs of moving away from full-employment, the FOMC might be inclined to consider further interventions by the end of 2019.
Moreover, Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver a speech on Friday following the release of the NFP report, and his commentary is expected to focus at least partially on the labour market conditions in the country and any possible interest rate alterations by the end of the year.
Overall, the USDCAD is currently forming an ascending triangle formation on the 4H chart, and the momentum is temporarily looking stagnant; however, the condition of this low-volatility environment should be broken once the momentum starts to build up once again. Friday's simultaneous release of the two countries' unemployment data could trigger one such volatility outburst, which could, in turn, cause the momentum to pick up and break this low-volatility environment.
Image source: Trendsharks ©, created with TradingView.com
Over the past few weeks, the USD has lost nearly 800 pips against the JPY, driven by Japan's shift away from decades of negative interest rates. With the Bank of Japan raising rates for the second time in a row, investors are adjusting their positions to [...]
Despite its volatility, Silver remains in an uptrend. While not as dynamic as Gold, XAG often mirrors XAU’s movements. A Multiple Top has formed around $32.50, and history shows that the more a level is tested, the weaker it becomes, increasing the likelihood of a [...]
A combination of factors, including Trump-era tariffs, the emergence of DeepSeek, and a slowdown in GDP growth, has contributed to the recent pullback in the US30 from its record highs. From a technical standpoint, a Double Top pattern has formed around the [...]
Over the past month, Silver has experienced an impressive 13% surge, marking a strong bullish trend. Despite notable volatility and multiple pullbacks, the overall momentum remains firmly to the upside. This strength is further validated by the Golden Cross, a historically reliable [...]
The Swiss Stock Market has been on a remarkable rally, surging over 15% between December and January. At times, the price action resembled a near-vertical ascent. However, following the announcement of Trump’s tariffs over the weekend, Monday’s trading session opened with a [...]
Between October and January, GBPUSD experienced a significant decline, dropping by approximately 1300 pips. However, we now observe signs of a potential trend reversal. Over the past few weeks, the pair has rebounded by more than 400 pips, shifting momentum toward a [...]
For the past 1 month, the UK100 saw a fantastic 600 point rally! The occasional corrections only attracted more buyers, which is healthy for the current up trend and the RSI currently exhibits elevated demand. A 130 point correction started last week on Friday, dipped below the [...]
Over the past two weeks, Japan’s leading stock index surged 2,000 points, reflecting strong bullish momentum. However, this week saw a sharp sell-off, erasing nearly all gains since mid-January. Despite this drop, the decline stalled at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, a key [...]
There is a clear shift in the momentum in the Oil market, with the commodity dropping with nearly 10% for the past 2 weeks. The Death Cross, a classic sell signal, is indicating that sellers are indeed in control and we are lookin now at a strong [...]
The 350 pip rally for the past 2 weeks seems like a trend reversal for EURUSD, with buyers back in control. The strong bullish momentum is also confirmed by the Golden Cross, a historic buy signal. Corrections are healthy for the trend and we currently looking at [...]
For the past 2 weeks GBPUSD went up with 400 pips and this is why we believe we might be looking at a trend reversal. The strong bullish momentum is confirmed by the Golden Cross, a classic buy signal, which supports the hypothesis that [...]
The Death Cross formation in USDJPY signals a robust downward momentum, with the USD depreciating by 300 pips over recent weeks. Further declines exceeding 300 pips are anticipated, potentially reaching the 152.00 level. Despite several corrective pullbacks, the price has been unable to surpass the [...]
Following the formation of a Double Top pattern at the 21,930 level last Friday, the NASDAQ has experienced a significant decline, plummeting by nearly 800 points. This downturn has been primarily driven by unfavorable manufacturing data emerging from China, alongside the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike on Friday. The market reaction closely resembles the [...]
GOLD's uptrend has regained strength, with several factors supporting further gains. The RSI bounced from oversold levels and now stands at 65, signaling growing demand and increasing buying volume. Additionally, the appearance of a [...]
For the past few months, USDJPY gained 2100 pips! Then, about 10 days ago the USD started dropping and so far corrected with 300 pips, dropping down to 155.00. A local Double Bottom got formed and this level also aligns with the important [...]
For the past week, the US100 has surged by over 1,000 points, signaling strong bullish momentum. The RSI stands at 69, indicating high demand and buyer dominance. A bullish Golden Cross pattern has emerged, confirming the upward trend. Despite a brief correction yesterday, with the index dipping to [...]
The Descending Triangle on the 4-hour chart, typically a bearish signal, failed to materialize this time. Instead, the Triple Bottom support at 92,000 held strong, driving significant buying volume. A Golden Cross—a classic bullish indicator—confirms strong [...]
After a 300-point correction from its December highs, the SP500 appears to be rebounding as bulls regain control. This recovery is supported by positive economic data, including strong NFP numbers, low unemployment, and CPI readings meeting expectations—all favorable for stocks. Additionally, the earnings season began yesterday with [...]
For several months, the EUR has been trending downward, losing hundreds of pips. While occasional corrections to the upside occur, bears remain in control. The strong downward momentum is highlighted by the Death Cross pattern, a classic sell signal. Yesterday, we observed another [...]
The Dollar remains strong, with buyers firmly in control since the Fed's December comments hinting at fewer 2025 rate cuts. This drove a 400-pip rally in USDCAD, now facing resistance near 1.4450 as early buyers take profit. Corrections are part of healthy trends, and the pair is testing support at [...]
