The Death Cross formation in USDJPY signals a robust downward momentum, with the USD depreciating by 300 pips over recent weeks. Further declines exceeding 300 pips are anticipated, potentially reaching the 152.00 level. Despite several corrective pullbacks, the price has been unable to surpass the 38% Fibonacci retracement level, which historically serves as a strong resistance zone. In addition to this well-defined technical setup and the currently neutral RSI, a significant fundamental catalyst is reinforcing the Yen's strength. The Bank of Japan's recent interest rate hike has had a profound positive impact on the currency, further accelerating its appreciation. This development is expected to trigger the second phase of the carry trade unwind, reminiscent of the trends observed in the summer of the previous year. Consequently, market participants are closely monitoring both technical and fundamental factors, which collectively suggest a continued bearish outlook for USD/JPY.
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