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Oct 16, 2020, 12:15 PM GMT
#Politics

Boris Johnson Backs Away from Talks with the EU, Eyes a Deal with Australia

Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson

Global media outlets reported that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson backed away from the Brexit negotiations table after reported heated exchanges with his European counterparts.

As was mentioned earlier, today was the deadline selected by Johnson for reaching an accord with Brussels. Reportedly, the two sides continue to have major disagreements on the issue of fishing grounds.

The refusal of the two sides to compromise means that now there is a heightened possibility for a no-deal Brexit on the 31st of December. The hard-line disposition of London and Brussels has exacerbated the negotiations impasse, which has prompted Johnson to resign the initiative to the EU.

The PM has stated that he is willing to cooperate with the bloc, provided that they agree to make a 'fundamental change of approach', meaning that the European Council would have to lower its demands significantly.

It should be noted that Johnson's rhetoric does not necessarily imply resignation from the negotiations altogether; rather, it should be perceived as removal of pressure onto the European side. In a sense, it is a strategic move to compel the EU to take on the initiative in the negotiations, which is supposed to make them compromise.

To further solidify his case, Johnson also said that the UK would now look to Australia to strike an overarching trade deal, which he expects to prompt the EU to action.

Though a no-deal Brexit scenario now seems more likely following today's developments, the UK and the EU may yet salvage some compromising deal by the 31st of December.

In the meantime, the pound is likely to be subjugated to more volatility outbursts stemming from all of this uncertainty. The currency depreciated by 0.44 per cent against the euro immediately after the publication of Johnson's remarks.

As can be seen on the hourly chart below, the EURGBP jumped from the 50-day MA (in blue) and the 20-day MA (in red) and is currently testing the upper boundary of the descending channel.

It remains to be seen whether the market would have enough bullish commitment left to drive the price action further north after the initial volatility outburst stemming from the news gradually wanes.

Meanwhile, the recent bearish crossover on the MACD indication seems to underpin a likely reversal in the near future.

EURGBP 1H Price Chart