EURUSD Waiting for the March Payrolls

1. Long-Term Outlook:

As can be seen on the daily chart below, the EURUSD continues to be establishing a massive Markdown, as postulated by the Wyckoff Cycle theory. This means that once the bearish trend is fully created, the underlying market sentiment is likely to transition into a new Accumulation range. This transition is typically encapsulated by heightened adverse fluctuations.

The aforementioned rebound occurred from the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at 1.16937, which had previously served as a rough lower boundary of the last Re-Accumulation range. This represents the most substantial piece of evidence signifying the potential termination of the current Markdown. But there is more.

The Markdown itself appears to take the form of a major 1-5 impulse wave pattern, as postulated by the Elliott Wave Theory. Notice that the final impulse leg (4-5) seems to have been concluded just above the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement, which further substantiates the expectations for the termination of the Markdown in the near future. This runs contrary to the underlying fundamental outlook.

The last several candles take the form of a Morning Star pattern, which also signifies the likely continuation of the currently emerging bullish correction. The correction could reach as high as 1.18450 before the broader bearish sentiment checks the short-term bullish bias. This level's significance stems from the fact that it served as a dip for the (2-3) impulse leg. Additionally, the level is about to converge with the 20-day MA (in red), which also serves as the middle line of the Bollinger Bands.

Overall, the broader outlook remains ostensibly bearish; however, short-term bullish pressure is mounting up. The price action is likely to fluctuate in a range between the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement and the aforementioned resistance at 1.18450. It would take a decisive breakdown below the former to confirm the continuation of the existing downtrend or a decisive breakout above the latter to confirm its likely termination.

Notice that the ADX indicator has been threading above the 25-point benchmark since the 25th of March, which means that the market is indeed trending. The lagging factor should also be taken into consideration (the ADX registers changes in the market sentiment after some delay). This means that the Markdown is still relatively weak, but it has room to grow more solid.

2. Short-Term Outlook:

The possibility for future fluctuations within the above-mentioned range is examined in greater detail on the 4H chart below. The final retracement leg (3-4) and impulse leg (4-5) of the Elliott pattern takes the form of a Falling Wedge. Given that such 1-5 patterns are typically followed by an Elliott correction, such a possibility can be plotted on the chart. The price is initially set to reach a peak at point A before it drops down to B. The correction will then be completed at the subsequent peak at C.

Notice that at present, the price action is consolidating below the 50-day MA (in green), which acts as a floating resistance. This means that the peak at A may already have been reached at the current market price. Conversely, a rebound could also occur either from the upper boundary of the Wedge or the aforementioned resistance at 1.18450.

Based on the minor 1-5 pattern (in blue) comprising the final impulse leg (4-5) of the broader Elliott pattern (in red), a Resistance Area (in green) is drawn on the hourly chart below. Even though the price action is currently consolidating between the two boundaries of the Area (the minor support at 1.17620 and the psychological resistance at 1.18000), any breakout/down away from the Area would illustrate the next most likely direction for the EURUSD.

The 50-day MA (in green) crossed above the 100-day MA (in blue), which represents a bullish signal. However, the MACD indicator has already registered a bearish crossover, which means that the underlying momentum is likely to become increasingly more bearish.

3. Concluding Remarks:

The underlying setup seems more suitable for market bears. They should wait for the current bullish correction to peak at one of the aforementioned levels before they, utilising trend-continuation strategies, sell at the resulting peak. The first target level is encapsulated by the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at 1.16937.

All Indicators on the EURUSD Point to the Same Likely Direction

The EURUSD has been demonstrating strength over the past several days as bulls retain control in the short term. Part of the reason for the persistence of this bullish correction in an otherwise bearish market stems from the relatively uneventful present week. Many markets were closed on Monday due to a Bank Holiday, which led to low trading activity and diminished overall liquidity. This trend was then carried into the next trading session due to the lack of any major economic drivers to stir higher volatility, apart from the recent IMF meetings.

This subdued price action environment represents ideal conditions for the development of a correction in an established trend, which, in turn, can be used by traders looking to join the trend. In other words, traders can expect another directional price swing on the EURUSD as soon as the general trading activity returns to normal.

Given the relatively subdued nature of the existing market sentiment coupled with the current technical outlook on the EURUSD, the price of the pair is likely to change its underlying direction shortly. This enables bears to utilise trend continuation strategies at the resulting swing peak by selling the underlying.

As can be seen on the 4H chart above, the price action is currently concentrated between the major support level at 1.18400 and the psychological resistance at 1.19000. The prominence of the former was already confirmed once (served as a dip at point 3), whereas the prominence of the latter has been confirmed twice (also highlighted with blue ellipses). In short, this is the range within which the price action is expected to reverse directions.

Notice that one of the latest candles represents a Shooting Star (typically taken as an indication of rising bearish bias), which closed below the 1.19000 resistance. This serves as further confirmation of the broader bearish expectations.

As was argued in the latest journal entry, the current bullish correction represents a 1-5 impulse wave pattern, as postulated by the Elliott Wave Theory. It appears to be concluded, which means that the price action has already likely peaked at point A. This means that the EURUSD is now ready to resume establishing the ABC Elliott correction.

All of these indicators, including the MACD tool, imply the likely continuation of the previous downtrend. While the price action is likely to once again head towards the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at 1.16937 in the near future, bears should watch for the behaviour of the price action around the remaining supports. These are underpinned by the two moving averages - the 50-day MA (in green) and the 100-day MA (in blue).

The EURUSD is Due for a Bearish Correction

The EURUSD shot more than 0.30 per cent yesterday following the better-than-expected U.S. consumer price data for March. The dollar weakness that was prompted by the inflation report is counterintuitive to common logic, which underpins the speculative nature of the latest EURUSD upswing. Given this massive volatility in the market, the expectations for an immediate correction gain some prominence.

The market appears to have already priced in the news from yesterday, which raises the likelihood of an imminent bearish correction.

As can be seen on the 4H chart above, the price of the EURUSD pair has peaked just below the lower boundary of the major Resistance Area (in green). The latter is of crucial significance because it underscores the previous swing high. In other words, the likelihood of a bearish correction is increased the closer that the price gets to the last swing peak.

The first target for such a correction is encapsulated by the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at 1.19429. The latter bears significant psychological importance, which is why it could turn into a major make-it-or-break-it point for the bears. Unless the price manages to break down below it, the bulls would be expecting another rebound from 1.19429, entailing an opportunity to join the existing uptrend.

If the price manages to penetrate below the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement, the next goal would likely be the 1.19000 support. The significance of the latter has already been tested on two separate occasions. The deepest target for a more sizable bearish correction is encompassed by the 1.18400 support, which served as a previous swing low.

The 1.19000 support is about to converge with the 50-day MA (in green), whereas the 1.18400 support is about to do the same with the 100-day MA (in blue). This raises the importance of the two.