Man walking his dog in front of the New York Stock Exchange. Image source: Anthony Quintano, flickr.com
U.S. Consumer Prices Growth Expected to Slow Down Moderately
The economic calendar for next week looks mostly uneventful, though the top-tier releases are likely to have the most significant impact on the EURUSD. The price of the pair is currently consolidating around a crucial support, which is expounded upon by our comprehensive analysis of the pair.
The most impactful economic release taking place this week will be the U.S. inflation numbers for November. The Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) will post the latest consumer price index (CPI) data on Friday.
U.S. MoM Inflation Rate. Image source: TradingEconomics.com
According to the preliminary forecasts, inflation will rise by 0.7 per cent in November, measuring a marginal depreciation in the pace of prices surge from the remarkable 0.9 per cent that was recorded a month prior.
The event will garner significant investors and traders' interest owing to FED Chair Jerome Powell's new take on inflation during his testimony before the U.S. Senate last week.
The report's significance is further bolstered by the fact that the November non-farm payrolls disappointed, which is the second most important gauge of economic stability used by the Federal Reserve.
The Pace of Economic Expansion in the Eurozone to Remain Flat
Eurostat will publish the revised GDP growth rate in the Eurozone for the third quarter on Tuesday. The market forecasts do not anticipate any changes to the 2.2 per cent expansions that was reflected by the advance report.
Eurozone QoQ GDP Growth Rate. Image source: TradingEconomics.com
These projections are predicated on the robust industry expansion that was recorded in the three months leading to September, elucidating the resilience of the Euro Area's recovery before the spread of the Omicron variant.
Drastic Drop Anticipated in German Economic Sentiment
Again on Tuesday, ZEW will release the recorded change in the German economic sentiment in November. A significant crunch is projected from the moderate improvement of 31.7 index points that was underpinned in October.
The index is expected to falter to 25.9 points owing to the above-mentioned upsurge in investors' fears owing to the Omicron variant.
Germany MoM Economic Sentiment. Image source: TradingEconomics.com
These projections are also based on the fact that consumption in the biggest economy in the Eurozone remained subdued over the same period. Despite all of these factors, the euro is still attempting to recuperate against the greenback in the short term.
As can be seen on the daily chart below, the price action is currently consolidating above the 61.8 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at 1.12936, which could spell the termination of the existing downtrend.
It was initiated following the completion of the Double Top pattern, underpinned by the breakdown below the major support-turned-resistance area.
However, the price action also remains concentrated below the 20-day MA (in red), which serves as a floating resistance. Failure to break out above it could represent just a temporary break in the downtrend as opposed to a decisive trend reversal.
That is why it is so vitally important to continue monitoring the behaviour of the price action within this emerging bottleneck - spanning between the 20-day MA and the 61.8 per cent Fibonacci - over the next several days.
EURUSD 1D Price Chart. Image source: Trendsharks ©, created with TradingView.com
Other Prominent Events to Watch Out for:
Tuesday - China MoM Trade Balance; Australia RBA Cash Rate Decision.
Wednesday - Canada BOC Overnight Rate Decision; Japan QoQ GDP Growth Rate.
Thursday - China MoM Inflation Rate.
Friday - UK MoM GDP Growth Rate; Germany MoM Inflation Rate.
Over the past few weeks, the USD has lost nearly 800 pips against the JPY, driven by Japan's shift away from decades of negative interest rates. With the Bank of Japan raising rates for the second time in a row, investors are adjusting their positions to [...]
Despite its volatility, Silver remains in an uptrend. While not as dynamic as Gold, XAG often mirrors XAU’s movements. A Multiple Top has formed around $32.50, and history shows that the more a level is tested, the weaker it becomes, increasing the likelihood of a [...]
A combination of factors, including Trump-era tariffs, the emergence of DeepSeek, and a slowdown in GDP growth, has contributed to the recent pullback in the US30 from its record highs. From a technical standpoint, a Double Top pattern has formed around the [...]
Over the past month, Silver has experienced an impressive 13% surge, marking a strong bullish trend. Despite notable volatility and multiple pullbacks, the overall momentum remains firmly to the upside. This strength is further validated by the Golden Cross, a historically reliable [...]
The Swiss Stock Market has been on a remarkable rally, surging over 15% between December and January. At times, the price action resembled a near-vertical ascent. However, following the announcement of Trump’s tariffs over the weekend, Monday’s trading session opened with a [...]
Between October and January, GBPUSD experienced a significant decline, dropping by approximately 1300 pips. However, we now observe signs of a potential trend reversal. Over the past few weeks, the pair has rebounded by more than 400 pips, shifting momentum toward a [...]
For the past 1 month, the UK100 saw a fantastic 600 point rally! The occasional corrections only attracted more buyers, which is healthy for the current up trend and the RSI currently exhibits elevated demand. A 130 point correction started last week on Friday, dipped below the [...]
Over the past two weeks, Japan’s leading stock index surged 2,000 points, reflecting strong bullish momentum. However, this week saw a sharp sell-off, erasing nearly all gains since mid-January. Despite this drop, the decline stalled at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, a key [...]
There is a clear shift in the momentum in the Oil market, with the commodity dropping with nearly 10% for the past 2 weeks. The Death Cross, a classic sell signal, is indicating that sellers are indeed in control and we are lookin now at a strong [...]
The 350 pip rally for the past 2 weeks seems like a trend reversal for EURUSD, with buyers back in control. The strong bullish momentum is also confirmed by the Golden Cross, a historic buy signal. Corrections are healthy for the trend and we currently looking at [...]
For the past 2 weeks GBPUSD went up with 400 pips and this is why we believe we might be looking at a trend reversal. The strong bullish momentum is confirmed by the Golden Cross, a classic buy signal, which supports the hypothesis that [...]
The Death Cross formation in USDJPY signals a robust downward momentum, with the USD depreciating by 300 pips over recent weeks. Further declines exceeding 300 pips are anticipated, potentially reaching the 152.00 level. Despite several corrective pullbacks, the price has been unable to surpass the [...]
Following the formation of a Double Top pattern at the 21,930 level last Friday, the NASDAQ has experienced a significant decline, plummeting by nearly 800 points. This downturn has been primarily driven by unfavorable manufacturing data emerging from China, alongside the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike on Friday. The market reaction closely resembles the [...]
GOLD's uptrend has regained strength, with several factors supporting further gains. The RSI bounced from oversold levels and now stands at 65, signaling growing demand and increasing buying volume. Additionally, the appearance of a [...]
For the past few months, USDJPY gained 2100 pips! Then, about 10 days ago the USD started dropping and so far corrected with 300 pips, dropping down to 155.00. A local Double Bottom got formed and this level also aligns with the important [...]
For the past week, the US100 has surged by over 1,000 points, signaling strong bullish momentum. The RSI stands at 69, indicating high demand and buyer dominance. A bullish Golden Cross pattern has emerged, confirming the upward trend. Despite a brief correction yesterday, with the index dipping to [...]
The Descending Triangle on the 4-hour chart, typically a bearish signal, failed to materialize this time. Instead, the Triple Bottom support at 92,000 held strong, driving significant buying volume. A Golden Cross—a classic bullish indicator—confirms strong [...]
After a 300-point correction from its December highs, the SP500 appears to be rebounding as bulls regain control. This recovery is supported by positive economic data, including strong NFP numbers, low unemployment, and CPI readings meeting expectations—all favorable for stocks. Additionally, the earnings season began yesterday with [...]
For several months, the EUR has been trending downward, losing hundreds of pips. While occasional corrections to the upside occur, bears remain in control. The strong downward momentum is highlighted by the Death Cross pattern, a classic sell signal. Yesterday, we observed another [...]
The Dollar remains strong, with buyers firmly in control since the Fed's December comments hinting at fewer 2025 rate cuts. This drove a 400-pip rally in USDCAD, now facing resistance near 1.4450 as early buyers take profit. Corrections are part of healthy trends, and the pair is testing support at [...]
