Commuters going through the turnstiles in a subway station in New York City. Image source: ymgerman © 123RF.com
U.S. Jobs Data Expected to Boost the Recuperating Greenback
Despite some temporary ripples, the U.S. dollar continues to be strengthening. To understand how this week's NFP numbers will affect the recuperating greenback, have a look at our detailed EURUSD analysis.
The most significant event this week will be the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls for June. As usual, the labour force data will be published on the first Friday of the new month.
According to the preliminary market forecasts, the number of employed persons is expected to surge by 700 thousand. This will measure a sizable increase from the 559 thousand jobs that were created a month prior.
U.S. MoM Non-Farm Payrolls. Image source: TradingEconomics.com
If these projections are realised, this would have a positive effect on the headline unemployment rate. The latter is expected to decrease marginally by 0.1 per cent, falling to 5.7 per cent.
The U.S. economy is recovering thanks in large part to FED's accommodative policy stance, which allows for the labour market to continue stabilising. This trend looks poised to remain active following FED Chair Jerome Powell's reassuring remarks from last week.
He calmed markets by demonstrating that inflation is not yet a major impediment to recovery, which is why FED's QE programmes could continue supporting jobs creation. All of this is good news for the dollar.
Could OPEC Jolt Oil Prices?
On Thursday, OPEC will be convening yet again, which would likely lead to volatility outbursts in the energy market. These could have a make-it-or-break-it effect on the rallying price of crude oil.
Two gatherings will take place then - the 181st Meeting of the OPEC Conference and the 18th OPEC and Non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting. Similarly to what happened last time, market experts expect to see more conformity amongst members to production adjustments.
The SG noted that dialogue and cooperation continue to be instrumental in #OPEC’s work to support a secure and stable supply of energy for the benefit of producers, consumers and the global economy at large.
— OPEC (@OPECSecretariat) June 24, 2021
This conformity to the plans for production cuts greatly reduces the possibility for future supply gluts, which is what caused crude's massive rally over the last several months. However, it remains to be seen whether OPEC would comment on the surging oil prices.
The market could interpret any such remarks as an early sign that OPEC might try to cap the rally. This, in turn, would represent a huge selling signal, potentially causing another correction. That is why this week's meetings would likely cause volatility to upsurge significantly.
U.S. Manufacturing Expected to Slide Marginally in June
There is one other prominent event that could affect the U.S. dollar this week. This is the ISM manufacturing data, which is also scheduled for publication on Thursday.
U.S. MoM ISM Manufacturing PMI. Image source: TradingEconomics.com
According to the consensus forecasts, the ISM index is projected to decrease marginally by 0.2 per cent. This would mean a depreciation to 61.0 index points from the 61.2 points that were recorded in May.
The projected depreciation of the index is not very significant, which is why the greenback is unlikely to be affected greatly by the data.
Owing to the significance of the economic releases in the U.S. and the OPEC meeting this week, the USDCAD pair is likely to register the most significant price action this week. That is so because of the Loonie's dependence on the price of crude oil.
As can be seen on the 4H chart below, the pair started developing a new Markup, as we forecasted last time. This happened after the price managed to break out above the Accumulation range, as postulated by the Wyckoff Method.
Due to the aforementioned strengthening of the dollar, the price is likely to continue appreciating in the near future, though the correction could fall as low as the 61.8 per cent Fibonacci retracement level beforehand.
Several factors substantiate the expectations for future gains. The Bollinger Bands are tightening, which indicates diminished adverse volatility for the time being.
Meanwhile, the underlying bearish momentum is waning, as indicated by the MACD indicator. Finally, all of this happens as the price action is consolidating above the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement level.
USDCAD 4H Price Chart. Image source: Trendsharks ©, created with TradingView.com
Other Prominent Events to Watch Out for:
Tuesday - U.S. CB Consumer Confidence; Germany Preliminary YoY CPI; ECB President Christine Lagarde Speech.
Wednesday - China MoM Manufacturing PMI; EU YoY Flash CPI Estimate; Canada MoM GDP; U.S. MoM Chicago PMI; U.S. MoM Pending Home Sales; U.S. Crude Oil Inventories; UK QoQ GDP.
Thursday - Germany MoM Final Manufacturing PMI; BOE Governor Bailey Speaks; Australia MoM Trade Balance; Germany YoY Retail Sales;
Over the past few weeks, the USD has lost nearly 800 pips against the JPY, driven by Japan's shift away from decades of negative interest rates. With the Bank of Japan raising rates for the second time in a row, investors are adjusting their positions to [...]
Despite its volatility, Silver remains in an uptrend. While not as dynamic as Gold, XAG often mirrors XAU’s movements. A Multiple Top has formed around $32.50, and history shows that the more a level is tested, the weaker it becomes, increasing the likelihood of a [...]
A combination of factors, including Trump-era tariffs, the emergence of DeepSeek, and a slowdown in GDP growth, has contributed to the recent pullback in the US30 from its record highs. From a technical standpoint, a Double Top pattern has formed around the [...]
Over the past month, Silver has experienced an impressive 13% surge, marking a strong bullish trend. Despite notable volatility and multiple pullbacks, the overall momentum remains firmly to the upside. This strength is further validated by the Golden Cross, a historically reliable [...]
The Swiss Stock Market has been on a remarkable rally, surging over 15% between December and January. At times, the price action resembled a near-vertical ascent. However, following the announcement of Trump’s tariffs over the weekend, Monday’s trading session opened with a [...]
Between October and January, GBPUSD experienced a significant decline, dropping by approximately 1300 pips. However, we now observe signs of a potential trend reversal. Over the past few weeks, the pair has rebounded by more than 400 pips, shifting momentum toward a [...]
For the past 1 month, the UK100 saw a fantastic 600 point rally! The occasional corrections only attracted more buyers, which is healthy for the current up trend and the RSI currently exhibits elevated demand. A 130 point correction started last week on Friday, dipped below the [...]
Over the past two weeks, Japan’s leading stock index surged 2,000 points, reflecting strong bullish momentum. However, this week saw a sharp sell-off, erasing nearly all gains since mid-January. Despite this drop, the decline stalled at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, a key [...]
There is a clear shift in the momentum in the Oil market, with the commodity dropping with nearly 10% for the past 2 weeks. The Death Cross, a classic sell signal, is indicating that sellers are indeed in control and we are lookin now at a strong [...]
The 350 pip rally for the past 2 weeks seems like a trend reversal for EURUSD, with buyers back in control. The strong bullish momentum is also confirmed by the Golden Cross, a historic buy signal. Corrections are healthy for the trend and we currently looking at [...]
For the past 2 weeks GBPUSD went up with 400 pips and this is why we believe we might be looking at a trend reversal. The strong bullish momentum is confirmed by the Golden Cross, a classic buy signal, which supports the hypothesis that [...]
The Death Cross formation in USDJPY signals a robust downward momentum, with the USD depreciating by 300 pips over recent weeks. Further declines exceeding 300 pips are anticipated, potentially reaching the 152.00 level. Despite several corrective pullbacks, the price has been unable to surpass the [...]
Following the formation of a Double Top pattern at the 21,930 level last Friday, the NASDAQ has experienced a significant decline, plummeting by nearly 800 points. This downturn has been primarily driven by unfavorable manufacturing data emerging from China, alongside the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike on Friday. The market reaction closely resembles the [...]
GOLD's uptrend has regained strength, with several factors supporting further gains. The RSI bounced from oversold levels and now stands at 65, signaling growing demand and increasing buying volume. Additionally, the appearance of a [...]
For the past few months, USDJPY gained 2100 pips! Then, about 10 days ago the USD started dropping and so far corrected with 300 pips, dropping down to 155.00. A local Double Bottom got formed and this level also aligns with the important [...]
For the past week, the US100 has surged by over 1,000 points, signaling strong bullish momentum. The RSI stands at 69, indicating high demand and buyer dominance. A bullish Golden Cross pattern has emerged, confirming the upward trend. Despite a brief correction yesterday, with the index dipping to [...]
The Descending Triangle on the 4-hour chart, typically a bearish signal, failed to materialize this time. Instead, the Triple Bottom support at 92,000 held strong, driving significant buying volume. A Golden Cross—a classic bullish indicator—confirms strong [...]
After a 300-point correction from its December highs, the SP500 appears to be rebounding as bulls regain control. This recovery is supported by positive economic data, including strong NFP numbers, low unemployment, and CPI readings meeting expectations—all favorable for stocks. Additionally, the earnings season began yesterday with [...]
For several months, the EUR has been trending downward, losing hundreds of pips. While occasional corrections to the upside occur, bears remain in control. The strong downward momentum is highlighted by the Death Cross pattern, a classic sell signal. Yesterday, we observed another [...]
The Dollar remains strong, with buyers firmly in control since the Fed's December comments hinting at fewer 2025 rate cuts. This drove a 400-pip rally in USDCAD, now facing resistance near 1.4450 as early buyers take profit. Corrections are part of healthy trends, and the pair is testing support at [...]
