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According to the Conference Board Inc., the Consumer Confidence Index in the US decreased to 125.5 index points in November from the recorded 126.1 index points the previous month.
The findings of the economic report are somewhat surprising, given that the consensus forecasts projected an increase to 126.9.
US Consumer Confidence Index.
The unexpected tumble of the index in November marks the fourth consecutive monthly fall, which happens just before the holiday season.
Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board, commented on the findings of the report by stating that:
“Consumer confidence declined for a fourth consecutive month, driven by a softening in consumers’ assessment of current business and employment conditions. […] The decline in the Present Situation Index suggests that economic growth in the final quarter of 2019 will remain weak.”
There are now indications that US consumers no longer expect that there is much inroad left for improvement of the labour market, which is currently going through a solid period of jobs and wage growth.
November’s marginal dip in consumer confidence is recorded just a few days before the commencement of the holiday shopping season.
Big and small retailers in the US are preparing for this week's Black Friday holiday, which typically is marked by significant reductions in prices for goods and services, and also by heightened consumer activity.
Nevertheless, market analysts prepare for the possibility of subdued shopping activity this year, which could potentially lead to diminished business activity in Q4.
The Conference Board released its findings yesterday, and the market was slow to react.
The EURUSD rose by 14 pips following the publication of the news; however, the dollar was able to quickly make up for the momentary losses by the end of the day's trading session.
The pair is currently trading at around the price level of 1.10000, which is a psychological level with fundamental importance due to the four zeroes.
As we argued in our market update from the 22nd :
“If it (the price) manages to break down below that level successfully, the next most likely target level would be the major support at 1.09985.”
The bearish sentiment is still prevailing on the market, and the EURUSD continues to develop the double top pattern, which was carefully examined in our previous updates.
EURUSD 1D Price Chart. Image source: Trendsharks ©, created with TradingView.com
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