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Yet another week of turbulent Brexit deliberations is expected to unfold and it seems that Theresa May’s task of delivering a soft divorce has never looked as daunting as it does now.
Over the weekend some credence was given to rumours that the PM might be ousted from office before the actual separation date, owing to her recent misfortunes at the European Parliament and her two failed attempts to pass through her divorce proposal.
The Chancellor of the Exchequer Phillip Hammond was speaking this weekend on Sky’s “Sophy Ridge on Sunday", and while officially backing May, he also acknowledged that a second referendum is an option, saying that it is a "perfectly coherent proposition".
He also argued that if the MP`s continue to reject May’s trade deal, it will be "up to the lawmakers to come together to find a way forward", as cited by Bloomberg media.
Such commentary by a high-ranking official exemplifies the ongoing polarization in the cabinet, between the PM on the one side and the House of Commons on the other.
The Brexit situation is continuously developing and there is news every hour but as of now (12 am UTC), in an earlier Parliamentary session from today the MP’s have proposed seven amendments to Theresa May's plan proposal, the most popular of which is a motion to give
“Parliament control of proceedings for a single day on Wednesday, so politicians can hold a series of so-called indicative votes on various options to find out which can command a majority “
The above statement is quoted in a Bloomberg article. Essentially, this is an attempt by the House of Commons to take control of the overall Brexit negotiations from Theresa May and steer them in the direction of the most popular opinions amongst the MPs, which can be either seeking longer-term divorce extension from the EU council for a softer Brexit, opting to revoke Article 50 or proposing a second referendum.
If the Speaker of the House John Bercow chooses this proposition out of the other six motions, then the GBP is expected to be quite volatile this Wednesday, especially if the possibility for a second referendum becomes more evident and realistic.
Otherwise, Theresa May will be attempting to find more support from the pro-Leave members of her own party, so that she can try to call for another Parliament vote and attempt to push forward her trade deal proposal for a third time.
In this scenario, the volatility on the GBP is expected to be increased towards the end of the week, depending on when (if) the actual parliamentary vote takes place.
The most likely time for that to happen would be either Thursday afternoon or Friday.
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