Streets of New York, U.S. Image source: Paul Churcher, flickr.com
As we approach Thanksgiving in the US, next week will be filled with significant economic data releases that could impact financial markets globally. Investors will have their eyes on several key reports from the U.S., Europe, and Canada that may shape market sentiment going into the final month of the year.
1. U.S. Consumer Confidence
The Conference Board's U.S. Consumer Confidence report, due on Tuesday, November 26, will be a major highlight. This data provides insight into consumer sentiment, which is critical as consumer spending accounts for a large portion of U.S. economic activity. Given the recent resilience in the labor market and cooling inflation, investors will be watching closely to see if consumer optimism remains strong heading into the holiday season. A robust confidence reading could signal that consumers are likely to keep spending, supporting economic growth. On the other hand, any decline in sentiment could raise concerns about weakening demand and its impact on retail sales.
2. U.S. GDP Revision (Q3 2024)
One of the most closely watched reports will be the second estimate of U.S. GDP growth for Q3 2024, due on Wednesday. The initial reading showed stronger-than-expected growth, reflecting resilience in consumer spending and business investment. Investors will be looking for any revisions that might indicate whether the U.S. economy is maintaining momentum or if early signs of a slowdown are emerging. A robust reading could fuel optimism heading into the holiday season, while a downward revision may heighten concerns about the sustainability of economic expansion.
3. FOMC Minutes Release
On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release the minutes from its latest meeting. With inflation remaining above the Fed’s target, these minutes will provide deeper insights into policymakers’ discussions on future interest rate decisions. Markets will be focused on any hints about how long the Fed plans to maintain elevated rates, especially as inflationary pressures continue to linger.
4. Eurozone CPI
On Thursday, November 28, Eurozone countries will release their Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, offering a clearer picture of inflation trends in the region. Inflation has been a persistent issue for the European Central Bank (ECB) throughout 2024, and these figures will be crucial for assessing whether price pressures are finally starting to ease. Markets are particularly focused on the ECB's next moves regarding interest rates, and a higher-than-expected CPI reading could signal that further tightening may be needed, impacting European equities and bonds. Conversely, a drop in inflation might ease pressure on the ECB and provide some relief to consumers and businesses.
5. Canadian GDP
Wrapping up the week, Canada’s GDP report for October, scheduled for Friday, November 29, will offer a glimpse into how the Canadian economy is faring. With Canada’s economy facing challenges from high interest rates and external trade issues, this GDP report will be key for determining whether growth is slowing down or stabilizing. A positive surprise in GDP growth could boost confidence in the Canadian market, while weaker-than-expected data may prompt concerns about the country's economic outlook, particularly in relation to monetary policy and business investment.
With US markets closing on Thursday, November 28, for Thanksgiving, this packed economic calendar will likely set the tone for global markets as investors prepare for December’s final trading weeks. Expect market volatility as these key data points are released.
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