Streets of Paris. Image source: Carl Campbell, flickr.com
The struggles of the single currency were exacerbated today following the publication of weaker-than-expected retail sales in the Eurozone for September. The broader bearish sentiment of the Euro was thus increased.
Earlier today, Eurostat posted the latest Eurozone retail sales for the month of September. According to the findings of the survey, consumption rebounded over the previous month, though below expectations. This caused the Euro's plunge against the yen to continue.
EURJPY 4H Price Chart. Image source: Trendsharks ©, created with TradingView.com
As can be seen on the 4H chart above, the price action of the pair is currently probing the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at 128.593. The latter represents a major make-it-or-break-it threshold.
A potential rebound from it could lead to a subsequent pullback to the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci at 129.004. Conversely, a decisive breakdown below it is necessary for the extension of the downtrend past the previous swing low at 128.000.
Notice that the price action is behaving as per the expectations of the Elliott Wave Theory. It appears to be establishing a broad 1-5 impulse wave pattern, which is comprised of smaller Elliott structures.
This is demonstrative of the fractal nature of the price action. It follows that a decisive breakdown below the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci would allow for the continuation of the second impulse leg (2-3) of the broader 1-5 structure. This is inlined with the primary bearish expectations.
Eurozone consumption is still stymied by weakened global demand
Retail sales in the Eurozone rebounded moderately by 0.3 per cent in September from the 2.6 per cent slump that was recorded a month prior. This fell short of the consensus forecasts anticipating a more sizable increase of 0.7 per cent.
Eurozone MoM Retail Sales. Image source: TradingEconomics.com
Soft global demand and persisting supply squeezes continue to represent a major impediment to Eurozone consumption.
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