Bank of Canada Headquarters, Ottawa. Image source: Photography by Doublespace
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Canada met yesterday on one of the Bank's regular monetary policy meetings. Unsurprisingly, the Committee decided to keep the Overnight rate unchanged from its current value of 0.25 per cent.
The most important news from yesterday, however, is that the Bank would scale back some of its short-term funding operations. Chiefly, the Committee argued that because of improved conditions in Canada's financial markets, it deems it appropriate to reduce the frequency of its term repo operations to once per week.
The Committee justified its actions with the fact that the underlying economic conditions in Canada, which have been observed in the wake of the initial crash, suggest that the worst-case-scenario outlined in the MPC's Minutes from April has been avoided.
" Massive policy responses in advanced economies have helped to replace lost income and cushion the effect of economic shutdowns. Financial conditions have improved, and commodity prices have risen in recent weeks after falling sharply earlier this year.[…] Decisive and targeted fiscal actions, combined with lower interest rates, are buffering the impact of the shutdown on disposable income and helping to lay the foundation for economic recovery. While the outlook for the second half of 2020 and beyond remains heavily clouded, the Bank expects the economy to resume growth in the third quarter."
These admissions come just days after Statistics Canada revealed that the Canadian economy has had its steepest monthly contraction on record in March.
Nevertheless, there is more and more evidence suggesting that the general economic downturn globally may have already peaked, which clears the way for improvement.
The inroad to full economic recovery, however, remains obscured by uncertainty as the healthcare risks persist. Governments are likely to ease off their restrictions at varying speeds, which increases the likelihood of a protracted global recovery.
Even still, BOC's decision to scale back the timing of its short-term asset-purchasing programs is dictated by such positive improvements in economic and financial conditions.
Moreover, the revised conditions of the energy market complemented by an upsurge of crude oil's prices is welcoming news for the Canadian economy, which is among the biggest producers and exporters of the precious commodity.
As can be seen on the 4H chart below, the Canadian dollar continues to appreciate against the greenback because of these better-than-expected developments.
Meanwhile, the massive QE program in the States is impeding the competitiveness of the US dollar.
The USDCAD has been consistently depreciating as per our projections from the 29th of May. The pair is likely to continue falling; however, a minor bullish correction might be due.
As can be seen, the MACD is underscoring the substantial bearish momentum in the market. Yet, the recent bullish crossover could underline a temporary break in the underlying bearish trend's development.
USDCAD 4H Price Chart. Image source: Trendsharks ©, created with TradingView.com
Over the past few weeks, the USD has lost nearly 800 pips against the JPY, driven by Japan's shift away from decades of negative interest rates. With the Bank of Japan raising rates for the second time in a row, investors are adjusting their positions to [...]
Despite its volatility, Silver remains in an uptrend. While not as dynamic as Gold, XAG often mirrors XAU’s movements. A Multiple Top has formed around $32.50, and history shows that the more a level is tested, the weaker it becomes, increasing the likelihood of a [...]
A combination of factors, including Trump-era tariffs, the emergence of DeepSeek, and a slowdown in GDP growth, has contributed to the recent pullback in the US30 from its record highs. From a technical standpoint, a Double Top pattern has formed around the [...]
Over the past month, Silver has experienced an impressive 13% surge, marking a strong bullish trend. Despite notable volatility and multiple pullbacks, the overall momentum remains firmly to the upside. This strength is further validated by the Golden Cross, a historically reliable [...]
The Swiss Stock Market has been on a remarkable rally, surging over 15% between December and January. At times, the price action resembled a near-vertical ascent. However, following the announcement of Trump’s tariffs over the weekend, Monday’s trading session opened with a [...]
Between October and January, GBPUSD experienced a significant decline, dropping by approximately 1300 pips. However, we now observe signs of a potential trend reversal. Over the past few weeks, the pair has rebounded by more than 400 pips, shifting momentum toward a [...]
For the past 1 month, the UK100 saw a fantastic 600 point rally! The occasional corrections only attracted more buyers, which is healthy for the current up trend and the RSI currently exhibits elevated demand. A 130 point correction started last week on Friday, dipped below the [...]
Over the past two weeks, Japan’s leading stock index surged 2,000 points, reflecting strong bullish momentum. However, this week saw a sharp sell-off, erasing nearly all gains since mid-January. Despite this drop, the decline stalled at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, a key [...]
There is a clear shift in the momentum in the Oil market, with the commodity dropping with nearly 10% for the past 2 weeks. The Death Cross, a classic sell signal, is indicating that sellers are indeed in control and we are lookin now at a strong [...]
The 350 pip rally for the past 2 weeks seems like a trend reversal for EURUSD, with buyers back in control. The strong bullish momentum is also confirmed by the Golden Cross, a historic buy signal. Corrections are healthy for the trend and we currently looking at [...]
For the past 2 weeks GBPUSD went up with 400 pips and this is why we believe we might be looking at a trend reversal. The strong bullish momentum is confirmed by the Golden Cross, a classic buy signal, which supports the hypothesis that [...]
The Death Cross formation in USDJPY signals a robust downward momentum, with the USD depreciating by 300 pips over recent weeks. Further declines exceeding 300 pips are anticipated, potentially reaching the 152.00 level. Despite several corrective pullbacks, the price has been unable to surpass the [...]
Following the formation of a Double Top pattern at the 21,930 level last Friday, the NASDAQ has experienced a significant decline, plummeting by nearly 800 points. This downturn has been primarily driven by unfavorable manufacturing data emerging from China, alongside the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike on Friday. The market reaction closely resembles the [...]
GOLD's uptrend has regained strength, with several factors supporting further gains. The RSI bounced from oversold levels and now stands at 65, signaling growing demand and increasing buying volume. Additionally, the appearance of a [...]
For the past few months, USDJPY gained 2100 pips! Then, about 10 days ago the USD started dropping and so far corrected with 300 pips, dropping down to 155.00. A local Double Bottom got formed and this level also aligns with the important [...]
For the past week, the US100 has surged by over 1,000 points, signaling strong bullish momentum. The RSI stands at 69, indicating high demand and buyer dominance. A bullish Golden Cross pattern has emerged, confirming the upward trend. Despite a brief correction yesterday, with the index dipping to [...]
The Descending Triangle on the 4-hour chart, typically a bearish signal, failed to materialize this time. Instead, the Triple Bottom support at 92,000 held strong, driving significant buying volume. A Golden Cross—a classic bullish indicator—confirms strong [...]
After a 300-point correction from its December highs, the SP500 appears to be rebounding as bulls regain control. This recovery is supported by positive economic data, including strong NFP numbers, low unemployment, and CPI readings meeting expectations—all favorable for stocks. Additionally, the earnings season began yesterday with [...]
For several months, the EUR has been trending downward, losing hundreds of pips. While occasional corrections to the upside occur, bears remain in control. The strong downward momentum is highlighted by the Death Cross pattern, a classic sell signal. Yesterday, we observed another [...]
The Dollar remains strong, with buyers firmly in control since the Fed's December comments hinting at fewer 2025 rate cuts. This drove a 400-pip rally in USDCAD, now facing resistance near 1.4450 as early buyers take profit. Corrections are part of healthy trends, and the pair is testing support at [...]
