Theresa May – the Scapegoat of British Politics That Everybody Loves to Hate

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Never since the appointment of Winston Churchill as a Prime Minister has there been so much controversy surrounding 10 Downing street and one cannot help but draw certain parallels between Churchill and Theresa May. The former had been appointed to the office in order to unite a divided Parliament and lead the nation to victory in an unwinnable war.

Whereas the latter was appointed to the same position during the most turbulent years for British politics in the modern era to achieve the impossible, which is to satisfy everyone's wants in the most divisive question of the last 50 years – how should the UK leave the European Union?

Imagine for a second having yourself to address the queries of your own party members and supporters, the opposition, the hardliner Brexiteers, the remainders, the rest of the nation and the whole of the EU as well, do you think you could deliver a compromising solution in a scenario where everybody demands an entirely different resolution to the issue?

Theresa May has many shortcomings as a Prime Minister, that is undeniable, however, in all honesty, she was appointed to a job that nobody else wanted at the time and knew very well that her every move would be scrutinized to the last detail. So at the very least Theresa May needs to be praised for accepting to be the scapegoat of British politics and undertake the most monumental and troubling endeavour since the inception of the European Union, and that is the divorce of the UK from that same union. Yet, the eventful last week has perhaps shown that the tide might be turning.

The day of Reckoning, 15th of January 2019

Without a question, the low point for Theresa May's cabinet was on the 15th of January, when her proposed trade deal was rejected in Parliament with a resounding 230-majority vote of 432 to 202. Despite being the biggest defeat in Parliament for the whole democratic history of the UK, this vote turned out to be a pivotal point in the divorce negotiations between the UK and the EU, as everybody had an agenda for the most acceptable state of affairs after the country officially leaves the union.

The hourly chart of the cable shows the vast volatility, that was affecting the markets prior and after the vote in Parliament, and a movement of more than 200 pips in just two hours. The biggest question that was left unanswered back then, which is still relevant today, is whether the UK will get a favourable trade deal, if it gets any at all, or it will leave the EU without any viable prospects for trade relationships in the future, both of which scenarios can have a completely different impact on the British economy for the next several decades to come.

After the first vote on the trade proposal on the 15th of January, it seemed as if everybody had gathered behind the idea that an eventuality where the UK gets a `bad trade deal` will not be tolerated by the PM's opposition. A bad trade deal, of course, is what the hardline Brexiteers, such as Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage, as well as the Labour opposition, led by Jeremy Corbyn, considered the proposition of Theresa May to be.

However, it is hard to say whether her proposal would have indeed had such bad consequences for the British economy, or the decisive rejection of her deal was more of a political manoeuver to corner the PM. Interestingly enough, the leader of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) Guy Verhofstadt attacked both The Labour Party and the Conservatives for using Brexit as an excuse to attack each other. When he addressed the European Council on the 13th of March, he said that:

"For them Brexit is a bullet in a weapon"

So, it would make sense that even though Theresa May's proposal might be far from perfect, her political opponents would use that as an excuse to mount an offensive against her and her supporters.

A strong cabinet requires a strong opposition

Regardless of what your opinions about Theresa May and the Tories might be, it is hard to critique her and her party's policies when the immediate alternative can offer either equally poor or even worse off substitute solutions. The role of the opposition in Parliament is not only to contradict everything that is proposed by the majoritarian party, but also to offer a wholesome critique of the current agenda, that could offer a viable alternative to the present propositions by the leading party. Whenever the opposition is strong, then the leading party would be forced to give its best both in and out of the voting chambers. So what is the current state of affairs for Theresa May's opposition?

Her biggest adversary is Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of Labour and the go-to party of Britain's working class, the party that is still struggling to decide how it feels about Jewish people and generally to catch up to the 21st century standards. Just one day after the crushing defeat for Theresa May's trade deal, Jeremy Corbyn called in a vote of no-confidence for her cabinet, a theoretically brilliant move that, at least on paper, should have sealed her fate and finally delivered the devastating blow to the PM. So, on the 16th of January, and I won't get tired of reminding you that it is just one day after the biggest defeat for a PM in the democratic history of the UK, with a 230 majority vote, Jeremy Corbyn's vote of no-confidence was rejected with a 325 to 306.

This result is attestation to two things: First and foremost, these findings solidify the previous statement that everybody loves to hate on Theresa May, but nobody wants to do her job. And secondly, it proves just how futile and aimless the direct alternative to the Tory party is. Such kind of backfire for the Labour party cleared beyond any doubt that despite all of the shortcomings of the Conservative party, as it is currently being led by Theresa May, Jeremy Corbyn and his leftists would be at least equally as politically stopped, if not even worse off.

Meanwhile the two most prominent and oldest flagships of British politics seem to be endlessly squabbling over who gets the upper hand, the very people who endorsed the Brexit vote and are at the prime reason for the whole ordeal – the hardline Brexiteers – rejected taking any political responsibility or initiative after the vote, and simply downgraded themselves to noisemakers.

While Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May fight over the direction of the whole divorce from the EU, despite their apparent stalemate, the likes of Nigel Farage are a constant presence in the heart of European politics, the European Parliament, relentlessly nudging Donald Tusk and the rest of the European politicians to decline the appeals by the PM for an extension of Brexit, so that they can finally have their “freedom” from the “oppressive” European Government, albeit without a trade deal.

All things considered, on the one hand, there is the incompetent labour party and on the other the self-delusional hard Brexiteers. In the light of the present developments, Theresa May's misfortunes and failures seem to outshine the biggest “successes” of her political opponents.

The changing of the tide

Last week really marked the climax of this years-long struggle with shaping and carrying out of the whole Brexit ordeal and with the 29th of March deadline almost coming to a crescendo, it seems that people are finally starting to listen to the PM, or at least recognize that the alternative is far worse off scenario. But how did the events of last week unfold?

On the 12th of March (Tuesday) Theresa May's trade deal got rejected in Parliament again, this time the result was 391 to 242. Albeit a decisive victory, it was not as clearly defined as the vote from one month earlier. This vote is a testimony to the growing prospect of a no-deal Brexit, which is the most disastrous possible alternative.

On Wednesday the Parliament accepted the PM's notion that the UK should not leave the EU without a trade deal, with a reassuring victory of 321 to 278.

Thursday marked the political climax for May, as the Parliament accepted her proposition to vote on a delay for Brexit, which was an unambiguous 412/202 victory.

The events of last week show one thing, even though the political fragmentation remains very much in place, and everybody has different goals, these political opponents begin to rally behind the common notion that no-deal Brexit benefits no one (apart from the likes of Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage).

This time the end justifies the means.

So, even though Theresa May so far has been unsuccessful in rallying the Parliament behind her agenda of delivering Brexit, the turn of events has led to political support from the cabinet, which happens to coincide with her stance. Theresa May was appointed to her position to deliver Brexit and it seems that now the stars are finally aligning, so it is up to her to seize the chance and make the most out of it.

What follows next?

Next week will mark yet another pivotal point in the development of the Brexit ordeal, with the UK parliament holding a session on Tuesday, to decide on how to proceed with the trade deal negotiations, should the deadline be extended. The European Summit is taking place on the 22nd and the 23rd, and European MP's have to decide on whether they would accept a prolonging of the Brexit deadline. In either case, the stakes remain the same and the players have one more chance to rethink their stances.

A no-deal divorce remains a feasible option, which would benefit no one, and in such a scenario the Pound could once again tumble down at a pace, similar to the one that was last seen after the Brexit vote. A less likely conclusion, such as a proposition for a second referendum and the possibility of revoking Brexit is still on the table for May, whose primary goal would be to rethink and amend her battered trade proposal for one more attempt to push it through.

Even if Theresa May manages to somehow rebrand her trade deal proposal, so that she can get a third vote in the House of Commons, the likelihood of her succeeding remains very low. As time is running out for the PM, she would find it increasingly difficult to implement any transformational changes to her proposal, which took two years to be developed, only to be rejected twice in under two months.

May is struggling at home to strike a balance between the Labour opposition and the crippling support of the MPs in her own Tory party, all the while the pressure from abroad is steadily mounting up from the European Commission, which demands further clarity about UK's intentions. If the Europeans lawmakers grant Theresa May an extension for Brexit, so that she can get her trade deal proposal in order, they would most likely demand from Britain to participate in the upcoming elections for European Parliament towards the end of May.

On the one hand, the European Commission will be reluctant to allow Britain to remain in the EU after the elections, without its actual participation in the EU Parliament, as that will cripple the credibility of the bloc's unity. On the other hand, Theresa May needs some extra time to win more support at home, but if she agrees to the UK's participation in the European Parliamentary elections, then she will definitely raise even more upheaval amongst pro-leavers as such an action will definitely be perceived as a neglect of the Brexit vote on the PM’s side.

In either case, the resolution of next week's voting would most probably show whether Theresa May would go down in history as the PM who finally managed to deliver what she was appointed to do, or as a scapegoat for an impossible task.