Russian Knights (Russkiye Vityazi) – ARMY 2017, Kubinka Airbase 23-8-2017. Image source: Alan Wilson, flickr.com
It has been a real rollercoaster of a year so far, with major ups and downs in the global efforts to manage the pandemic, the beginning of Biden's presidency, persisting distortions of the global supply chains and soaring inflation, but it looks as though even now political tensions could escalate very quickly. Russia has amassed tens of thousands of troops near its border with Ukraine, in what many have started to fear could pan out to be a repeat of the 2014 invasion.
What has been the political response so far?
Jens Stoltenberg, Nato Secretary General, commented on Friday the unusual size and concentration of troops near the border, which could potentially be a prelude to an incursion by Russia into the Donbas region of Ukraine. U.S. intelligence agencies have warned Western allies against possible Russian aggression as temperatures start to drop.
So far, Russian officials have been dismissing NATO's concerns, claiming that stationing troops within the country's borderlines is a matter of internal affairs. Such muscle-flexing has long been part of Russian intimidation tactics, which is why misreading the situation by either side could escalate tensions very rapidly. Russia's foreign ministry has already alleged that the U.S. response is really a political ploy by republicans to gain further momentum, which could hardly calm down nerves in Kiev.
Attempts by certain 🇺🇸 congressmen to engage in self-promotion through utter Russophobia are doomed to failure. It just makes them look ridiculous and yield no results. Instead of trying to interfere in🇷🇺internal affairs, it's time for legislators to tackle the situation at home. pic.twitter.com/C5a6kGc9kK
— Russian Embassy in USA 🇷🇺 (@RusEmbUSA) November 19, 2021
And while Russia and the U.S. continue to be passing the diplomatic ball to each other's court, France, the first major European state to take a stance, tried to play hardball with Putin. In an interview for LCI television on Sunday, French foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian warned Russia of 'grave consequences' should it invade its southern neighbour.
France, still reeling from its recent political exclusion from a major arms deal between allies U.S. and Britain, appears adamant to reaffirm its leader status in the global political arena. This is becoming an increasingly more pressing issue for the country, with less than two months remaining before it takes on the Presidency of the Council of the EU.
🇫🇷🇪🇺 | 44 days to go before France takes on the Presidency of the Council of the European Union.
— France Diplomacy🇫🇷 (@francediplo_EN) November 19, 2021
🇪🇺 is taking on ambitious measures to make EU the world's first green continent !#EU2020FR pic.twitter.com/hlQkYIyP9E
Moreover, Macron's government would likely attempt to dissuade Putin early on into the diplomatic spat from any military actions. The goal would be to avoid additional backlash similar to the wave of criticisms for inaction that was directed towards European leaders back in 2014.
Russia's incursion in Ukraine several years ago showed just how woefully unprepared European states were to mitigate a major conflict so close to home. Macron would most probably seek to avoid embroiling the Union in a repeat of 2014.
The question is whether Putin can really be pressured politically by a weakened Europe, given his strong opposition to a broader array of questions. Especially since the resolution to Europe's energy crisis still hinges on Putin's willingness to satisfy the bloc's massive demand for natural gas.
The market's reaction, likely economic ramifications
So far, markets have remained relatively unfazed by the sporadic diplomatic fire and rhetoric barrages across the border between Russia and Ukraine, and investors seem to downplay the risk of a Russian incursion into the Donbas region.
1D Comparison Chart. Image source: Trendsharks ©, created with TradingView.com
Gold, as the penultimate safe-haven asset, has been climbing moderately over the past several weeks, though a bearish correction in the near term seems highly probable. This represents the most significant indication that the market does not expect the situation to continue escalating much further than that.
U.S. stocks, represented by the S&P index on the daily chart above, continue advancing further up north, whereas the Russian RTSI index has been diving over the last few days. The extra bearish bias on Russian stocks is prompted by the political pressure currently exerted by the West. The opposite effect is being registered by the French CAC 40 index.
The price of crude oil finally started correcting itself following the massive rally triggered by the above-mentioned energy squeeze. This represents another definite sign that investors remain optimistic concerning the global economic prospects until the end of the year.
Over the past few weeks, the USD has lost nearly 800 pips against the JPY, driven by Japan's shift away from decades of negative interest rates. With the Bank of Japan raising rates for the second time in a row, investors are adjusting their positions to [...]
Despite its volatility, Silver remains in an uptrend. While not as dynamic as Gold, XAG often mirrors XAU’s movements. A Multiple Top has formed around $32.50, and history shows that the more a level is tested, the weaker it becomes, increasing the likelihood of a [...]
A combination of factors, including Trump-era tariffs, the emergence of DeepSeek, and a slowdown in GDP growth, has contributed to the recent pullback in the US30 from its record highs. From a technical standpoint, a Double Top pattern has formed around the [...]
Over the past month, Silver has experienced an impressive 13% surge, marking a strong bullish trend. Despite notable volatility and multiple pullbacks, the overall momentum remains firmly to the upside. This strength is further validated by the Golden Cross, a historically reliable [...]
The Swiss Stock Market has been on a remarkable rally, surging over 15% between December and January. At times, the price action resembled a near-vertical ascent. However, following the announcement of Trump’s tariffs over the weekend, Monday’s trading session opened with a [...]
Between October and January, GBPUSD experienced a significant decline, dropping by approximately 1300 pips. However, we now observe signs of a potential trend reversal. Over the past few weeks, the pair has rebounded by more than 400 pips, shifting momentum toward a [...]
For the past 1 month, the UK100 saw a fantastic 600 point rally! The occasional corrections only attracted more buyers, which is healthy for the current up trend and the RSI currently exhibits elevated demand. A 130 point correction started last week on Friday, dipped below the [...]
Over the past two weeks, Japan’s leading stock index surged 2,000 points, reflecting strong bullish momentum. However, this week saw a sharp sell-off, erasing nearly all gains since mid-January. Despite this drop, the decline stalled at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, a key [...]
There is a clear shift in the momentum in the Oil market, with the commodity dropping with nearly 10% for the past 2 weeks. The Death Cross, a classic sell signal, is indicating that sellers are indeed in control and we are lookin now at a strong [...]
The 350 pip rally for the past 2 weeks seems like a trend reversal for EURUSD, with buyers back in control. The strong bullish momentum is also confirmed by the Golden Cross, a historic buy signal. Corrections are healthy for the trend and we currently looking at [...]
For the past 2 weeks GBPUSD went up with 400 pips and this is why we believe we might be looking at a trend reversal. The strong bullish momentum is confirmed by the Golden Cross, a classic buy signal, which supports the hypothesis that [...]
The Death Cross formation in USDJPY signals a robust downward momentum, with the USD depreciating by 300 pips over recent weeks. Further declines exceeding 300 pips are anticipated, potentially reaching the 152.00 level. Despite several corrective pullbacks, the price has been unable to surpass the [...]
Following the formation of a Double Top pattern at the 21,930 level last Friday, the NASDAQ has experienced a significant decline, plummeting by nearly 800 points. This downturn has been primarily driven by unfavorable manufacturing data emerging from China, alongside the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike on Friday. The market reaction closely resembles the [...]
GOLD's uptrend has regained strength, with several factors supporting further gains. The RSI bounced from oversold levels and now stands at 65, signaling growing demand and increasing buying volume. Additionally, the appearance of a [...]
For the past few months, USDJPY gained 2100 pips! Then, about 10 days ago the USD started dropping and so far corrected with 300 pips, dropping down to 155.00. A local Double Bottom got formed and this level also aligns with the important [...]
For the past week, the US100 has surged by over 1,000 points, signaling strong bullish momentum. The RSI stands at 69, indicating high demand and buyer dominance. A bullish Golden Cross pattern has emerged, confirming the upward trend. Despite a brief correction yesterday, with the index dipping to [...]
The Descending Triangle on the 4-hour chart, typically a bearish signal, failed to materialize this time. Instead, the Triple Bottom support at 92,000 held strong, driving significant buying volume. A Golden Cross—a classic bullish indicator—confirms strong [...]
After a 300-point correction from its December highs, the SP500 appears to be rebounding as bulls regain control. This recovery is supported by positive economic data, including strong NFP numbers, low unemployment, and CPI readings meeting expectations—all favorable for stocks. Additionally, the earnings season began yesterday with [...]
For several months, the EUR has been trending downward, losing hundreds of pips. While occasional corrections to the upside occur, bears remain in control. The strong downward momentum is highlighted by the Death Cross pattern, a classic sell signal. Yesterday, we observed another [...]
The Dollar remains strong, with buyers firmly in control since the Fed's December comments hinting at fewer 2025 rate cuts. This drove a 400-pip rally in USDCAD, now facing resistance near 1.4450 as early buyers take profit. Corrections are part of healthy trends, and the pair is testing support at [...]
