Waiting for the End of the Pullback on the EURUSD

In other words, the longer-term target for the bearish downtrend is the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at 1.16940. In addition to being a Fibonacci threshold, this support level also marked the lowest point of the last 1-5 impulse wave pattern, as postulated by the Elliott Wave Theory.

This is why it bears such psychological importance. However, before the EURUSD could sink so low, the price action would have to break several other supports.

Notice that the Markdown was initiated after the price managed to break down below the lower boundary of the Wedge. This signifies the magnitude of the new downtrend. Subsequently, the price action was also able to penetrate below the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at 1.19437.

Then, the aforementioned pullback began developing. It reached the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci from below, which is now most likely to serve as a turning point for the direction of the price action. The price has been unable to close above it for three days in a role, as indicated by the candles' upper shadows, which means that the pullback may have already peaked.

On the one hand, it seems highly probable that the price action would reverse from 1.19437 and resume falling. Before it can sink to the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement level, however, the price would have to break down below the 300-day MA (in purple). Hence, bears should be looking for signs of a potential rebound at 1.18000. This is the first major target for the renewed downtrend.

On the other hand, the pullback could be extended a little bit higher before the price can reverse. The price action could establish a fakeout above the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci, reaching the 200-day MA (in orange). The latter is currently converging with the psychologically significant resistance at 1.20000, which is yet another major turning point. Therefore, depending on their level of risk-aversion, bears can either look for an opportunity to sell at the current spot price or wait and do so around 1.20000.

Catching the Reversal at the Exact Moment

Notice that though waning, the bullish momentum in the short term remains prevailing. This can be inferred by the MACD indicator, meaning that the price could indeed probe above the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci before a more decisive reversal takes place.

This is substantiated by the fact that the price is currently consolidating just below 1.19437 but above the 20-day MA (in red). Yet, the 50-day MA (in green) is nearing the Fibonacci threshold from above. All of this increases the likelihood of adverse fluctuations around 1.19437.

It is also interesting to point out that the descending channel, which was especially important before the beginning of the Markdown, could still be useful. In particular, traders can observe how the price behaves around its lower boundary if a fakeout does occur above the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci. The channel's lower boundary appears to be crossing the psychological resistance at 1.20000, which increases the chances for a reversal there.

Finally, the hourly chart below underscores the temporary consolidation of the price action within a bottleneck. In addition to the fact that the price is concentrated very close to the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci, it is also being concentrated above the 100-day MA (in blue) and below the 150-day MA (in orange).

That is why a decisive breakout/breakdown away from these two extremes would demonstrate whether the pullback would be extended a little bit higher or the reversal would happen right away.

Concluding Remarks:

Less risk-averse bears could look for an opportunity to enter short around the current market price, as stated earlier. This means the range between 1.19437 and the minor support at 1.19100 (underpinned by the 100-day MA).

They should place their stop-losses above the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci. Once the price breaks down below the 100-day MA, the SLs could be moved to the 100-day MA.

More risk-averse traders, in contrast, could wait and see whether the price goes to 1.20000 before they join the market there.

EURUSD Ready to Continue Diving Following the Pullback

The bullish pullback that was alluded to in the initial analysis looks completed. This means that the price of the EURUSD is now ready to continue establishing the broader downtrend.

The dollar is recuperating under the currently subdued conditions on the market, as headline liquidity diminishes. Part of the reason for this is the renewed interest in lower-risk securities that is taking place as pressure keeps mounting on higher-risk assets.

While there are no major economic events in the calendar that could boost the euro this week, the non-farm payrolls in the U.S. are likely to strengthen the greenback on Friday. Hence, the underlying indicators all seem to be pointing towards a probable continuation of EURUSD's downtrend.

As shown on the 4H chart above, the temporary bullish pullback climaxed just below the 50-day MA (in green), which serves the role of a floating resistance. Subsequently, the price action went on to penetrate below the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at 1.19437 yet again.

This reinstated selling bias is also confirmed by the MACD indicator, which is signalling mounting bearish momentum. All of this confirms the expectations for further dropdowns in the near future.

If the price action manages to penetrate below the Support Area (in green), it is then likely to head towards the next psychologically significant target level. This is the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement at 1.16940.

In case that the price action does not manage to penetrate below this area from the second attempt, another minor throwback to the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement from below could follow afterwards. This would provide bears with yet another opportunity to sell just below this major support-turned-resistance level, in anticipation of further dropdowns.

EURUSD's Temporary Consolidation Now Over

The short term sentiment on the EURUSD looks poised to change yet again. The price action looks ready to transition from a minor consolidation range, and resume falling as per the established downtrend. The latter was examined in greater detail in the initial analysis of the pair.

The temporary range emerged as a consequence of the low market liquidity that is currently being observed. Trading activity remains quite subdued because most market participants are on their summer holidays (effect of market seasonality), and also because the current week is relatively uneventful.

But now, EURUSD's price action is demonstrating definite signs that it is ready to resume falling, which entails bears with an opportunity to utilise trend continuation trading strategies.

As can be seen on the 4H chart above, the aforementioned range actually takes the form of a Descending Wedge pattern. When found at the bottom of a preceding downtrend, such patterns are typically taken to entail potential bullish reversals.

However, given the fact that the price action appears to be probing the lower boundary of the Wedge, this can be perceived as a trend continuation indication. In order for this to be confirmed, the price would have to break down below the lower boundary of the Wedge decisively. It is the current 4H candle that has to do so.

Notice that the price action remains concentrated below the three moving averages, as all four maintain a perfect descending order. The 20-day MA (in red) is positioned below the 50-day MA (in green), which, in turn, threads below the 100-day MA (in blue). All of this underpins the persisting bearish bias in the market.

The MACD indicator, also, registered a bearish crossover recently. This means that bearish pressure is once again mounting in the short term. This is also confirmed by the fact that the price action reversed from the 50-day MA on the two occasions it probed it. These tests also represented reversals from the 38.2 and the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement levels.

Bears can look for an opportunity to place more selling orders at the close of the current candle (if it closes below the Wedge). They would also have to place tight stop losses in order to protect themselves in case that the breakdown turns out to be a false movement. SLs can be placed just above the peak of the current 4H candle.