Today is CPI day, and technical analysis often falters on major news days. Nevertheless, here's our take on the US Tech 100: we anticipate a potential drop of 800-1,000 points. December's Fed comments triggered a selloff, with bears dominating the index for weeks. The strong downward momentum aligns with Death Cross patterns—short-term moving averages crossing below long-term ones, a classic sell signal.
We’re also monitoring a Descending Triangle pattern. If the price breaks below the support line, theory suggests a drop equal to the triangle’s height. Adding weight to this bearish view, the price recently tested, broke, and closed below the crucial 61.2% Fibonacci retracement level. A break below this level often signals a trend reversal rather than a correction. Based on these setups, we foresee the US100 dropping to 20,000 or lower.
However, if CPI data comes in below expectations, all this could change, and the index may spike north by 400-600 points.
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