Crude oil, being the energy market benchmark, is being affected quite substantially by the ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine. The prospect of war could disrupt the global supply chains of crude oil as Russia is one of the biggest exporters of the commodity, as well as the most significant member of OPEC+, which is what is prompting the heightened demand for the commodity.
Heightened market speculation, being the result of traders and investors weighing in on the likelihood of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, is thus causing the underlying rally, which appears to be headed towards the psychologically significant threshold at 100.00. Not only that, but the rally itself appears to be taking the form of a massive ABCD pattern. This raises the question of when could the next correction emerge, which would allow bears to utilise contrarian trading strategies while bulls might buy the eventual dip of such a correction using trend-continuations strategies?
As was pointed out by our gold analysis from earlier today, the overall uncertainty in the commodity market remains elevated, though slightly diminished. This is owing to solid economic data that was published this week, as well as the expectations for an upward revision of the U.S. growth rate in the fourth quarter.
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